BIOSIGHT UP TO 2025
Supply, demand and dynamics of bio-based chemical business
Pöyry Management Consulting published a new multiclient report “BioSight up to 2025” in the end of January 2015.
The BioSight 2025 report gives a broad overview on the bio-based chemical business with a particular focus on the role of consumer brands as market makers. The report concentrates on a selection of bio-based chemicals (approx. 40), where Pöyry has identified interesting business opportunities over the years. These chemicals are divided into sugar, oil, lignin and gas platforms according to their feedstock. To highlight the recent developments, established bio-based commodities such as ethanol, lysine and sorbitol were excluded from the scope.
Bio-based plastics is the single largest end-use (by volume) for bio-based chemicals, representing approx. 900 kt in 2013. Demand for bio-based plastics depends on various factors including i.e. opportunities for GHG savings, cost-competitiveness and application development but the role of brand owners is increasing in importance. Many leading consumer brands have recently set specific targets for introducing bio-based plastics to their products.
In the BioSight report, Pöyry looked at these announcements and analysed what this trend would mean for the demand of bio-based plastics and how it would reflect on bio-based chemicals. Pöyry expects the trend of brand owner targets to expand from innovators to early adopters by 2025. Despite rapid growth rates, bio-based plastics will account for less than 2% of the total plastics demand in 2025.
This unique insight into the bio-based chemical business provides significant value to investors and companies active in the financial sector, from forest and agricultural industries, the chemical industry, end-users and brand owners, R&D organisations, as well as to authorities and government agencies.
Key questions answered in the report include:
- What are the fundamentals of bio-based chemical business (drivers, hurdles, feedstocks, technologies, policies, geographical hubs, value chains, leading companies, partnering strategies)?
- How will the supply of bio-based chemicals develop through to 2025 (in terms of feedstock, chemicals, volume)?
- What is the demand for bio-based plastics in 2025 (in terms of application, plastic type, volume)?
- How much new chemical capacity is required each year to meet this demand?
The bio-based chemical and polymer industry is acknowledged to be a complex field and a tough business to forecast. There are numerous technologies and routes from feedstocks to chemicals and end-use applications. In addition, there is a lack of solid understanding of the demand side and the added value of bio-based components. After years of focused work, Pöyry has gained unique know-how of the bio-based industry and developed the procedures and tools for reliable supply and demand forecasts.