15 Jun 2010
Security of gas supply: European scenarios, policy drivers and impact on GB
Gas security of supply is a significant issue that faces governments, industry participants and consumers.
Significant investments in pipeline and LNG import capacity, had taken place in GB between 2003 and 2009. However, some concerns remained that GB may not have adequate security of supply to mitigate supply disruptions, particularly in light of increasingly diverse sources of gas.
In 2010, the UK’s Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) commissioned Pöyry to provide a detailed qualitative and quantitative analysis, including what a realistic ‘High European demand case’ scenario would look like, what its impact on GB could be, what combination of risks pose the greatest threat to UK security of supply or prices (and volatility) and how to best mitigate against them.
Our often quoted analysis concluded that under most circumstances, GB has sufficient capacity and diversity of gas supplies. It is sufficiently resilient to the security of supply risks posed by interconnections to and major pipeline supplies to Europe. However, should gas demand rise significantly there will be more pressure on gas supply, such that more pipeline and LNG import capacity will be required.